(Dan Tri) – Russia has overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West, and can expand missile production beyond pre-conflict levels, according to US, European and American officials.
Pro-Russian militias fired grad missiles at Ukrainian positions in Debaltseve in 2015 (Photo: Getty).
In addition to spending more than $40 billion to provide weapons to Ukraine, the US also considers tightening the flow of weapons to the Russian military as an important part of its strategy to support Kiev.
With the impact of sanctions, US officials estimate that Russia has been forced to significantly reduce the scale of production of missiles and other weapons for at least 6 months since the conflict broke out in February 2022.
But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial production began to accelerate again, anonymous US officials admitted to the New York Times.
Russia circumvents US export controls by using its intelligence agencies and the Department of Defense to operate a network of clandestine transporters of essential components.
US and European regulators are trying to coordinate to limit chip exports to Russia, but are having difficulty preventing that flow through countries with ties to Moscow.
Russia’s increased missile production could mean an especially dark and cold winter for Ukrainians, according to officials.
Workers repairing a power transformer station in Ukraine suffered damage after a Russian airstrike in central Ukraine in 2022 (Photo: New York Times).
Russian military production skyrocketed
In October 2022, the US gathered international officials in Washington to find ways to strengthen sanctions on the Russian economy.
The reason is that these measures prevent countries from sending microchips, computer processors and other components needed for precision-guided weapons, as well as parts for diesel engines, helicopters, and jets.
But Russia quickly adapted through moves to ensure the necessary supply of components.
With revenues from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and Ministry of Defense have been able to source microelectronics and other materials from the West needed for cruise missiles and other major guided weapons.
Before the conflict, Russia could produce 100 tanks a year, according to a senior Western defense official.
Western officials also believe that Russia is on track to produce 2 million artillery shells per year, double the initial number that Western intelligence agencies estimated Russia could produce before the conflict.
Thanks to that, Russia is producing more ammunition than the US and Europe.
The S-400 missile system was displayed during a military parade in Moscow in 2015 (Photo: Sputnik).
Mr. Salm said that production costs in Russia are much lower than in the West partly because Moscow sacrifices safety and quality to produce cheaper weapons.
For example, it costs a Western country 5,000-6,000 USD to manufacture a 155 mm artillery shell, while Russia only costs about 600 USD for an equivalent 152 mm artillery shell, Mr. Salm said.
However, Russia still faces some challenges.
`In certain areas, Russia has been able to significantly increase production,` noted Dmitri Alperovitch, an international security expert and President of Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington-based think tank.
For components that Russia needs in the millions, export controls could stall production.
Scene of a missile attack on Kiev in August (Photo: New York Times).
Russia’s superiority and hope for Ukraine
US officials say they can slow, but cannot stop, Russia from smuggling parts needed for missile production.
Currently, the US and the European Union have a common list of 38 types of items restricted from export to Russia.
US and European officials are working with banks to develop systems to alert governments about possible sanctions violations.
On August 31, the US Department of Commerce accused three people of participating in Russia’s illegal shopping network.
Mr. Petrov allegedly acquired microelectronic devices from US-based exporters to send to Cyprus, Latvia or Tajikistan.
One of the challenges for the US government is that Russia does not need high-end chips, which are easier to track, but common chips that can be used for many purposes, not just guided missiles.
Mr. Kim Jong-un arrived in Russia on September 12.
Still, American and Western officials say there is still some good news.
For example, despite being on track to produce 2 million artillery shells a year, Russia has fired about 10 million shells by 2022. This has forced Moscow to find ways to increase reserves from other places, most recently trying to achieve
Russia and North Korea both deny allegations of arms supply agreements between the two countries.
And despite its success in finding supplies of microprocessors and circuit boards, Russia is facing shortages of rocket propellants and basic explosives – materials that can be more difficult to transport secretly than circuit boards, according to sources.
Increasing military production also hurts the Russian economy, especially when interest rates skyrocket in the country.
Russia has reallocated nearly a third of its commercial economy to weapons production, a senior Western defense official said.
Russia has reduced its attacks on Ukraine’s power grid over the summer.
US officials hope a steady supply of anti-aircraft artillery shells and other support can help Ukraine fend off missile attacks.
`The Ukrainians have become more effective in protecting infrastructure and building defenses around important power plants,` Mr. Salm said.
